The era of low interest rates for mortgage loans is far from over. On the other hand, it may no longer be possible to finance oneself on historically favorable conditions in recent months. If we refer to the figures communicated by various online brokers, the rate scales are already showing increases of 0.05 to 0.3 point in August.
For eighteen months, from the start of 2012 and until June 2013, mortgage loan rates to individuals declined continuously, almost losing a point, from almost 4% to less than 3%. As the banks benefited from attractive financing conditions, they applied them to the interest rates granted to individual borrowers.
From July 2013, we saw a rise in the average rates of these loans: 2.92% in July, 2.98% in August (excluding insurance). It should be noted, however, that the rise in these rates is slightly more moderate when it comes to investing in the new rather than the old.
The rates of loans granted by the banks depend in particular on the cost of their financial resources, a cost which has itself gone up since June 2013. Indeed, the OAT which serves as a benchmark for the rate bank refinancing has recently returned to above 2 %, mechanically causing an upward impact on the rate conditions offered to individuals.
The current situation
Despite this rise in rates, they remain low; September is a month of significant activity in real estate, banks should limit the rise in the rate of their loans, especially since they are looking for borrowers. Even if the volume of loan production shows a clear increase (of the order of 14% compared to August 2012), the number of loans finally granted by credit institutions is increasing much more moderately, this being mainly due to the reduction in the personal contribution injected into the project by individuals.
Conclusion and perspectives
The global economic environment is not yet very encouraging, very uncertain recovery, continued rise in unemployment, lack of fiscal stability, complexity of the Duflot bill. Real estate professionals expect only a slight drop in prices in late 2013, because they are resisting.
In addition, the reduction in the taxation of property gains from September 1 should encourage the return of goods to the market. Finally, the level of the cost of credit, which remains very low despite a moderate increase, should encourage potential buyers to take the plunge.